28 higher production costs. Although elevated phosphate prices could lead to somewhat depressed demand, this effect is difficult to quantify. In addition to higher phosphate prices, other factors that could slow down the growing demand for phosphate include: 1) a slowing down of the world economy and consumption, and 2) legislation to reduce nutrient application in agriculture. Although the world economy has currently slowed down, leading to reduced consumption in some sectors, it is unlikely that this pattern will persist in the longer run. The current economic crisis will, as such, not affect the increasing global demand for phosphate in the future. In contrast, legislative measures to reduce the amount of fertilisers and manure used on agricultural land will have a permanent effect on phosphate consumption. The question is whether these reductions in European countries will weigh up against the increasing demand in countries such as China and India. 4.2 Future trends of phosphate consumption It is clear from the previous section that global phosphate consumption is likely to grow in the future despite higher phosphate prices and the current economic downturn. The growth rate will, however, be different for different regions. Whereas phosphate consumption in Europe might decrease, consumption will increase in countries such as India and in SE Asia. The US, Brazil and some European countries might also step up their phosphate consumption, mainly to increase their biofuel production. This section reviews and discusses various scenarios for the growth of global phosphate consumption. A distinction is made between the growth of the global phosphate consumption with and without the effects of biofuel production. Global consumption The world population is currently growing at a rate of 1.5% per year. The United Nations expects the world population to reach 9 billion in 2050, which is a 50% increase on the current 6 billion (UN, 2005). It is likely that the growth rate will level off around 2050 and the population will then remain stable or show only slight growth. Assuming that food consumption and agricultural production will keep pace with population growth, we may - as a first approximation expect a similar growth rate for global phosphate consumption. For the short to medium term i.e. the next few years, the IFA predicts phosphate consumption will grow annually by 2.7%, which is somewhat higher than the world population growth (IFA, 2008). However, looking at phosphate consumption in the past half century, the growth rate estimated by the IFA may even be conservative: between 1950 and 2000, the world population grew by about 1.4%, but the production of phosphate rock rose by 4.4% on an annual basis. Pagina 37

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