4. Future trends of phosphate consumption and sufficiency of resources 4.1 Global drivers of the phosphate market Determining future phosphate consumption and hence the sufficiency of current phosphate reserves, requires a proper understanding of the drivers of the phosphate market and future developments. The most important use of primary phosphate is for food production (fertilisers, and to a lesser extent feed and food additives). And the increasing demand for food will lead to a growing demand for phosphate. Moreover, higher standards of living, with a concomitant increase in meat consumption, will lead to a further increase in global phosphate demand. More recently, the production of biofuels has also started to play a role in global fertiliser consumption. The most important drivers of the phosphate market in the long term are therefore: the growing world population; the increasing standards of living and meat consumption; the increasing production of biofuels in relation to oil prices. To keep up with future phosphate demand, mining companies will have to increase their production capacity and invest in the future exploitation of new resources. Although there are indications that mining companies have not made sufficient investments in the past, which currently leads to tight supply conditions, this will be a temporary effect as increasing phosphate prices will spur the exploitation of currently uneconomical phosphate resources. Higher phosphate prices of 50 - 100 US$/ton will however persist in the long term due to decreasing grades of the phosphate ores and subsequent 27 Pagina 36

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