grant aids. Over a decade P was essentially not used in these countries. Next, developing countries (DC) lacked financial resources to invest in P fertiliser. Since 2000, production has increased to 163 Mt of phosphate rock in 2008, which is probably the result of increased fertiliser consumption in rising economies such as China and India. 25 Figure 3.2: Global phosphate production and price development of phosphate rock over the period 1900 to 2008. Prices reflect US$ import prices in real and constant 1998 US$ per metric ton phosphate rock. Source: USGS, 2007; USGS, 2009. Constant 1998 US$ prices for phosphate rock show – apart from some rapid fluctuations - a slightly negative trend over the period 1900 – 2000. During the same period, uncorrected US$ prices have gradually increased, with a small jump in the mid nineteen-seventies (see Figure 3.2). Only during the last two to three years have uncorrected phosphate prices picked up and increased from ~30 US$/ton in 2005 to 113 US$/ton in 2008 (USGS, 2009). However, the figures quoted are strongly influenced by the prices of long-term contracts and actual spot prices must have been substantially higher. P fertiliser prices have become unstable: Prices increased from 2007 onwards, peaked in 2008 followed by a decline to the price level of 2007 and are currently (June 2010) again increasing. In fact, the USGS reported ‘a dramatic jump’ in the spot prices of phosphate rock approaching 500 US$/ton in 2008 (USGS, 2009). Such unrealistic spot prices are not representative of the longterm price developments in the phosphate market. According to the Fertiliser Institute in Washington, price increases were caused by higher energy prices, shipping costs and a sharp rise in worldwide fertiliser demand (IFA, 2008). Furthermore, conventional phosphate reserves in the US are also slowly running out without being replaced by new resources. In combination with very high oil prices in 2008, this might have caused a panic-driven price development on the global phosphate market. Other important factors are the devaluation of the US dollar, the tight supply and, possibly, a lack of long term investment in the phosphate industry because of the negative price developments in the last two decades. The tight supply conditions are expected to last until 2012 when new mines are projected to open in Australia, Brazil, Peru and SAudi Arabia (USGS, 2008). Pagina 34

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