2 65% of world production. Europe does not currently produce any raw phosphate ores, and imports all raw phosphate and phosphate fertilisers from abroad. The measured and indicated economic phosphate reserves are estimated at some 15000 Mt of phosphate rock, whereas the reserve base, which also includes the marginally and sub-economic phosphate deposits, is estimated at some 47000 Mt of phosphate rock. This represents 5000 Mt and 16000 Mt of P2O5 respectively. Mining production of phosphate rock increased slightly in the last decade and the current annual production amounts to some 167 Mt. As a result of increasing phosphate prices, resource development has been stimulated and new phosphate occurrences are currently being evaluated in e.g. Mali and Namibia. As a result of increasing phosphate prices, the size of the reserve and reserve base will increase in the future. At prices of 50 - 100 US$/ton, it is estimated that our current reserve base would roughly double to 100 000 Mt of phosphate rock. Chapter 3: Global use and consumption of phosphate Phosphate rock is mainly used for the production of mineral fertilisers such as diammonium-phosphate (DAP) and triple superphosphate (TSP), which on average accounts for 74% of the global inorganic phosphate consumption. This average global figure excludes the role of organic phosphate in the form of animal feed and food. It should be noted that for some countries such as the Netherlands, the organic phosphate consumption plays a more important role than inorganic fertiliser consumption. The four largest (net) consumers of phosphate fertilisers include China, the US, India and Brazil i.e. big countries with a substantial agricultural sector. The global per capita consumption pattern reveals considerable differences between the western world (> 20 kg P2O5/ capita; e.g. US, Australia, Canada and New Zealand) and the developing countries i.e. much of Africa (< 1 kg P2O5/capita). Europe plays an intermediate role in inorganic phosphate fertiliser consumption. The consumption of phosphate rock has, on average, increased by some 3.4% in the last 100 years, yet phosphate prices have remained somewhat stable (constant 1998 prices fluctuating between 26 and 43 US$/t). Only during the last two years have phosphate prices started to rise rapidly from ~30 US$/ton in 2005 to 113 US$/ton in 2008. Even more, exceptionally high spot prices of 500 US$/t cif were reported by the US Geological Survey in 2008. Although these high spot prices are bound to go down in the near future, cheap phosphate prices will be a thing of the past. Chapter 4: Future trends of phosphate consumption and sufficiency of resources Using various scenarios for global phosphate consumption as well as the additional effect of increasing biofuel production, the sufficiency of the current phosphate reserves (indicated and measured economic Pagina 11

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