COSTS OF PRODUCTION AND SALE Though Jaap’s potential increase in sales value is clearly significant, it is important to thoroughly investigate whether the costs of production and sale will stay relatively low enough for Jaap to truly capture this additional value. Jaap’s costs will be significantly higher in the initial years of switching to polyculture due to the capital investments in new crops and equipment. These costs vary per polyculture scenario. The tree and berry polycultures are the most expensive in terms of initial investment because of the cost of the plants. Growers can reduce these costs by opting for younger plants that will take longer to fruit and focus on growing annual plants in that period. Labor costs will also increase by an estimated 20% throughout the production period, depending on the specific polyculture scenario, though much of the standard labor associated with weeding, soil care, irrigation, and greenhouse maintenance will remain similar to what needs to be done in a standard monoculture. With the polyculture approaches suggested here, energy costs should decrease significantly due to the removal of supplemental heating and lighting, which can counterbalance the increase in labor costs. The highest increase in costs is most likely the cost of marketing and sales. If we take a high estimation of cost of sale, where marketing and product management personally cost Jaap around 30% of the value of his crop, then this will decrease his potential revenues by 1,6 million euros. This would still result in an overall increase in revenue, but only by a small fraction. Thus, a key takeaway of this test scenario is that it is essential to develop smart and effective shared marketing models for product sale. If the cost of marketing is too high, the grower will not capture much, if any, of the value increase represented by direct to retail sales. However, Jaap has the potential to gain many economic benefits beyond annual profits, including the potential to develop a visible brand with a local clientele. This local customer base is more likely to continue to buy from him, even in economically difficult times. Over time, Jaap can shiſt his production to increasingly cater to his local customers, adding in more unique products, and expanding the amount of hectares dedicated to polyculture as it becomes more profitable. A SYSTEMIC CHANGE A broad trend toward switching to high-efficiency polycultures could greatly reshape the overall greenhouse horticulture sector in the Netherlands. The industry would begin to shiſt towards smaller-scale, more diverse farms focused on serving their local client base. These smaller scale farms could potentially work in cooperatives, each supplying targeted portions of the population’s local diet. These farms could also exchange waste materials in order to close local nutrient cycles, and co-invest in decentralized renewable energy technologies. In this smaller-scale, polyculture-focused scenario, growers could earn more money from cultivating smaller areas of land than under a monoculture regime. Export would no longer be the primary focus of production. Cropping cycles would be more closely aligned with local market demand and less food would be wasted or spoiled during transport. The overall carbon footprint of most products would fall dramatically and there would be less demand for packaging or long-term cooling. Finally, the connection between growers and consumers would be strengthened, creating a stronger and more transparent local economy. Such a system could bring great benefits in the long-run, but there are many challenges - technical, economic, and cultural - that need to be addressed before a shiſt in this direction is possible. The three polyculture designs presented in the following section are a stepping stone along the path to testing the feasibility of this approach. Pagina 20
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