V.3 Polydome Concept Overview Economic Analysis We constructed a simple budget to assess the economic viability of our proposed model. These calculations are meant to represent a ballpark assessment and do not take into account more complex issues such as taxes, insurance, depreciation of equipment, and similar topics. Market Value of Products Since the greenhouse is meant to be productive for at least 30 years, it is difficult to estimate what the value of crops and other products will be over this time period, particularly since market prices already tend to fluctuate from year to year. We have used several data sources for farm gate crop prices: the FAO’s annual global data set, the Rodale Institute’s crop values, Dutch auction data, and in a few rare cases where nothing else was available, modified prices from Dutch supermarkets. Because the discrepancy between price data sets was so significant, we constructed two economic scenarios: a “high” scenario, which uses the highest market values, and a “low” scenario, which uses modest pre-retail prices (auction values). These were meant to roughly correspond to a scenario where many of the products will be sold directly to customers, versus a scenario where most products will be auctioned. Greenhouse Structure A typical greenhouse structure costs around 35 euros per square meter to erect. For vegetable production systems, the cost of the structure represents only 40 - 50% of the total cost of the system. Additional costs include robots, track 40 systems, cooling, screening elements, ventilation, and lighting. Because this system is meant to be longer-lasting and more complex than a typical Dutch greenhouse, we have taken these basic figures as a foundation and multiplied them by a factor of four to generate an estimate of the initial investment required. We did not specify the exact technical elements of the system, which makes it impossible to come up with a precise estimate. Using this factor of four increase, the initial structural costs of a one-hectare Polydome greenhouse are estimated at 2,8 million euros. This is a very high cost for a small size, with the goal being that production values should be adequately high to justify the cost, and that the structure will be designed for a long operational life span. Operational Costs Major costs of traditional greenhouse operation include: energy costs, labor, inputs (chemicals, beneficial insects, substrate, seed, etc.), as well as the packaging and transport of goods. In the Polydome greenhouse model, some of these costs are theoretically reduced - such as the cost of many inputs, some of the continuing energy costs, and ideally the cost of packaging and transporting goods. In the best scenario, the greenhouse would be attached to some kind of shop, and would therefore avoid the cost of most packaging and shipping. On the other hand, the cost of labor is estimated to be a fair amount higher than in a traditional greenhouse, since the various modules require additional oversight. We added a fairly large safety margin to our labor estimates to ensure that they were at least somewhat reflective of the complexity of the system. However, because the technological systems in the greenhouse are not fully designed, we could not estimate the up-front costs of these systems nor what their annual expenses might be. Based on our calculations of costs associated with the other modules, we estimated that the system would require an operating budget of around 400.000 euros per year. Yields A summary of the annual yields produced in the Polydome model system at maturity is displayed in the column to the right. This estimate represents the yields from year six of production and beyond. It was calculated by analyzing the productivity of each functional crop cluster, and extrapolating from the final crop layout. Something which is immediately clear is that the crops are not scaled relative to one another to consistently supply a population with a diverse range of food. This relative scaling is something that could easily be modified to optimize either food production for a community (for example, size all primary outputs to the demands of 10000 people). Based on our calculations, we estimate that a single hectare Polydome system can supply Pagina 39
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